Energy modeling, climate change and the COP 21
Tuesday, October 6, 2015 – The Macedonian partner organizations in the SEE SEP project Analytica, Eko-svest and Front 21/42 held a conference at the EU InfoCentre in Skopje Macedonia titled: “Energy modeling, climate change and the COP 21”. The event was a panel discussion where the three organizations presented the work on the Energy model in 2050 called Energy Calculator. The model was developed simultaneously in 7 countries of the SEE region (Macedonia, BiH, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, Croatia) and covers the supply and demand side of energy. At the conference it was presented: the process of filling the model with data and the final results on how Macedonia can lower its emissions up to 78% in 2050.
The presented Energy model is a tool for data input during the decision-making processes related to the energy sector and it gives recommendations regarding the sectors which were considered and analyzed at several levels.
Furthermore in the second panel speakers were representatives of Macedonian and international institutions, the Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The discussed topics were connected to climate change and what is being done for the mitigation of its effects in Macedonia.
The conference was opened by the Minister of Environment and Physical Planning Mr. Nurhan Izairi and the Head of Cooperation in the EU Delegation in Skopje Mr. Martin Klaucke.
The Minister noted that they see civil society as an important partner in the addressing and dealing with lot of issues including the ones connected to climate change. He also noted that the Ministry is actively preparing for the Climate change conference in Paris, and that Macedonia has adopted and sent the INDC as the 23rd country from all the countries in the world.
Mr. Klaucke from the EU Delegation said that Macedonia as a candidate member state must follow the EU trends for lowering its emissions and increasing the energy efficiency. That is possible, he noted, if we all work together in that direction. Furthermore, for dealing with one of today’s challenges – climate change – a broad effort is needed and cooperation is the key to success. The government, civil society, media and the citizens themselves can all contribute to a cleaner and secure future and the project which is the topic of today’s discussion can bring together all stakeholders in the region who deal with sustainable energy. Last he noted that we all hope to have cleaner air in the country and the region and that we all hope the region will get closer to the EU standards so that the clean energy future can become reality.
Next on the agenda was Nevena Smilevska from Eko-svest who presented shortly the SEE SEP project, its partners, objectives, activities and products.
Then followed Analytica’s Research and management coordinator Sonja Risteska who worked on the energy model for the past two years and presented the results, the process, the online tool Tier2 which is intended for the stakeholders to use, as well as some of the scenarios up to 2050 for Macedonia notably for production of electricity from renewables and for heating in the households. The Tier 2 online tool of the model is expected to become open to the public shortly after this event.
Next was Iskra Stojkovska from Front 21/42 who talked about what’s coming next from the model and that is the Interface or the online tool intended for all the citizens called also Tier 3. She presented the British version of the interface and explained to the audience how each of us can “play” with the settings and see how different alternatives of demand and supply in energy can change how much we spend and/or pollute.
The comments from the audience after these presentations were namely in the line of congratulations on the done work and the final result (the Tier 2 of the Energy Model). The criticism was for the media who left the event before the results of the energy scenarios up to 2050 for Macedonia were presented. Also, some of the remarks where that there was no gasification of the country modelled, and that the planned capacities for power plants (renwables) are too ambitious. In addition, some comments were about the dissemination process and how it will be done, is it possible to engage municipalities more if the Government is unwilling to do more in using the model, can it be compared to MARKAL model, can more be done for energy efficiency in the industry not only in buildings, what was the used methodology and can the scenarios from the model be used for instance in the prapration of Macedonia’s strategic documents such as the new Energy strategy.
Next presenter was the representative of the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning Mrs. Teodora Obradovic Grncarovska, whose presentation was about Macedonia’s contributions against climate change i.e. the INDCs for Paris COP 21 and how the process was developed. More into detail went Mr. Alexander Dedinec from MANU, the Research Center for Energy and Sustainable Development, who gave a presentation about the Environmental, economic, and social aspects of climate change mitigation in Macedonia. He also presented scenarios, but scenarios that the Research Center did, based on Macedonian strategic documents. The main conclusion of his presentation is that the idea is to reduce the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels combustion for 30%, that is, for 36% at a higher level of ambition, by 2030 compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Last but not least, Mrs. Pavlina Zdraveva, Project Manager, UNDP spoke about Innovative ways of presenting INDC and inclusion of the citizens in the climate change debate. The main idea of her presentation was to show how each citizen can contribute to the mitigation of the effects of climate change throughout innovative ways and ideas.
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